As Alibaba ramps up Australian expansion, the China-based online giant predicts a dramatic future for commerce.
AliResearch, the research arm of Alibaba Group, hosted its “Vision 2046” summit in Beijing this week, bringing together thought leaders to offer a glimpse of the future through a lens of the Digital Economy 2.0.
Hosting the summit for the second year, AliResearch released the first in a series of reports exploring the framework, operating model, socio-economical impacts brought on by the future digital economy.
AliResearch believes the world is now at the dawn of a new economy in which platform rather than corporations will be the name of the game, commerce will be driven by data, and sharing will be a key theme in an environment where inclusive technology, inclusive finance and inclusive trade will flourish.
In its latest report, entitled Digital Economy 2.0, AliResearch predicts three major trends in the emerging new economy:
· The end of corporations. By the year 2020, the majority of commerce will be conducted on digital platforms, which provides consumers and merchants the infrastructure of commerce, such as data, trade, payment, logistics and etc. In the process it will give rise to the world’s first digital platform with transaction volume in monetary terms exceeding USD1 trillion.
· The end of 8-hour work employment. By 2036, around half of the workforce will be made up of self-employed and freelance workers, putting an end to the 8-hour-day employment system.
· The end of centralised commerce. By 2046, 80% of global trade will be conducted by small businesses or individuals, as the platform model for economic development will enable them to create and trade globally and freely.
A report by Boston Consulting Group, also released at the summit, envisages that by 2035, China’s eGDP, a monetised measurement of the digital economy, will grow to around US$16 trillion.
It will have a penetration rate of around 48% of the wider economy, compared to US$1.4 trillion and a penetration rate of 13% in 2015.
The number of job opportunities this digital economy will create will be to the tune of 415 million.
In the era of "New Retail”, the Group foresees that low-skill, repetitive tasks in offline stores will be replaced by high-tech equipment like touch screens, mobile apps or robots, while omni-channel sales talent will be highly valued by online and offline enterprises.
Meanwhile, the advent in data technology will give rise to a “New Manufacturing” industry where the efficiency of workers will be greatly enhanced by the increasing use of robotics.
Thanks to the booming development of intelligent manufacturing in China, the report predicts a large number of new jobs will be created as a result.
More than 800 leaders and executives from over 120 well-known research institutes, think tanks, universities and consulting firms from China and around the world joined the summit.