ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 0.8 points to 81.1 this week.
Despite the increase, the index has now spent a record 65 straight weeks below the mark of 85.
Consumer confidence is now only 1.3 points above the same week a year ago and 1.6 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.7.
ANZ economist Madeline Dunk said the swing back was not enough to offset the 3.2 point drop the week before, adding the swing back came as household inflation expectations jumped 0.3 per cent to 5.3 per cent amid stronger-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) data.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently recorded a 1 per cent increase in CPI in the March 2024 quarter, and a 3.6 per cent lift over the year. However, clothing and footwear recorded a quarter-on-quarter deflation of 1.1 per cent, and just a 0.4 per cent lift year-on-year.
The most significant price rises for the March quarter were rents (2.1 per cent), secondary education (6.1 per cent), tertiary education (6.5 per cent) and medical and hospital services (2.3 per cent).
“While inflation expectations are at a 2024 high, it is important to keep in mind that the pre-COVID historical average (2010-2019) for the series is 4.8 per cent; consumer inflation expectations tend to track above actual inflation,” Dunk explained.
“Confidence is still very low at just 81 points, reflecting the sharp decline in real per capita household disposable income. We expect a material improvement in both measures later in the year in response to the Stage 3 tax cuts.”
According to ANZ and Roy Morgan, driving the weekly increase in consumer confidence this week was increasing confidence about personal financial situations and the performance of the Australian economy over the next year.
Now under a fifth of Australians (19 per cent - up 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 52 per cent (up 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Views on personal finances over the next year this week were marginally improved with 31 per cent (up 1ppt) expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while another 34 per cent (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Now 8 per cent (down 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months - which is the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year - compared to a third (33 per cent - down 2ppts) that expect ‘bad times’.
Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term also deteriorated this week with 12 per cent (unchanged) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 19 per cent (down 4ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.
Buying intentions were marginally down this week with 21 per cent (down 2ppts) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 47 per cent (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.