Roy Morgan Business Confidence has lifted by 2.8 points to 102.4 in June, with retail trade sliding into the top five most confident industries.
Retail is now at 107.7, but it’s unclear if this is a lift as the fifth-most confident industry in May (rental and real estate) was at 111.7.
Retail jumped into the top five most confident industries as education and training slipped out.
The rest of the top five in June 2025 are public admin and safety (130.9), accommodation and food services (128.6), utilities (116.0) and rental and real estate services (110.0).
According to Roy Morgan, the key driver of business confidence in June was more confidence about the year ahead, both for businesses and the broader Australian economy. This came before the RBA’s move to hold interest rates this week, against the expectations of most economists who were predicting a rate cut.
The positive news for the Australian economy was highlighted by the ASX 200 stock-market closing at an all-time record high of 8,592 in mid-June and the Australian Dollar reaching its highest point so far this year at 65.5 US cents in late June.
Businesses reportedly grew significantly more confident about their own prospects over the next year with 39.6 per cent (up 7.3ppts) expecting to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 21.7 per cent (down 1.8ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
There was also greater confidence about the prospects for the Australian economy over the next year with a rising majority of 59.2 per cent (up 1.1ppts) expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next 12 months compared to 36.7 per cent (down 2.6ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said this was a second straight monthly increase in business confidence following the upheaval on global share-markets in April sparked by US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. She said the uncertainty created by the tariffs’ announcement appears long past with the record lift in the ASX200 in mid-June.
“Two indicators improved in both May and June,” Levine said. “Now 44.7 per cent of businesses say ‘the next 12 months is a good time to invest in growing the business’ – up 6.5 percentage points since April, and nearly a third, 32.8 per cent (up 6.3 percentage points), say they expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years.
“Businesses remain most confident about the Australian economy’s performance over the next year with a rising majority of 59.2 per cent (up 1.1 percentage points from May) expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year. This indicator has now been the highest of the five key indicators for over a year since April 2024 as businesses continue to have a positive view on the economy’s near-term prospects.
State-by-state, business confidence was highest in Victoria and Queensland in June at 106.6. There were also positive results for Western Australia (104.8) and South Australia (104.0).
However, business confidence is well below the neutral level of 100 in both New South Wales (92.9) and Tasmania (93.0). Tasmanians are set to vote in an unexpected state election in mid-July after a no confidence motion was successfully brought against Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
At the other end of the scale, agriculture, forestry and fishing holds the lowest confidence at 63, which also holds the lowest average business confidence over a sustained period of the last three years of 82.8 – the lowest average of any of the 18 industries.
Business confidence for the mining industry is at only 86.5 – the only other industry with a low confidence below 90.
Roy Morgan’s business confidence is now 7.7 points below the long-term average of 110.1, but 15.2 points higher than the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence of 88.6 for June 30 – July 6, 2025.