ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence has fallen by 8.1 points in March to 86.4.
The recent blow comes after steady gains over recent months, with ANZ and Roy Morgan citing the recent contraction of New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.1 per cent in the December quarter. This led to recession headlines taking over the news cycle.
Consumer confidence is measured through monthly surveys, answered by just over 1,000 respondents.
Late-month responses to the survey were markedly weaker than those that preceded the release of gross domestic product data.
Inflation expectations in New Zealand were unchanged at 4.5 per cent, while expected house price inflation fell from 4.1 per cent to 3.4 per cent. This series has no predictive power for house prices but is a lens on the “wealth effect” on spending.
The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions fell 8 points to 93, while the current conditions index fell 9 points to 76.
The net perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 11 points to negative 23 per cent with 20 per cent of New Zealanders saying they are 'better off' financially than this time a year ago, down 4 percentage points from February.
Meanwhile, a rising 44 per cent - up 7 percentage points - say they are 'worse off' with the net result back where it was in September last year.
A net 19 per cent of respondents expect to be better off this time next year, up 1 point from a month ago, while a net 24 per cent of respondents think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, down 6 points, bringing a steady run of improvement to an end.
The net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time dropped a sharp 14 points to negative 34 per cent with only 12 per cent (down 8ppts) of respondents expecting 'good times' for the New Zealand economy over the next year and almost half (46 per cent - up 6ppts) expecting 'bad times'.
The 5-year-ahead measure dropped 10 points and into negative territory for the first time since May 2023 at only negative 5 per cent. This includes 22 per cent (down 7ppts) who expect 'good times' for the economy over the next five years and 28 per cent (up 3ppts) who expect 'bad times'.
“News that the economy re-entered recession in the second half of last year appears to have hit Consumer Confidence hard,” ANZ and Roy Morgan claimed.
“Only around half of the week 4 survey responses will have come in after GDP data was released on 21 March, but the responses for that week overall were notably lower.
“That said, the preceding weeks were also softer than February, so the monthly fall in confidence isn’t just about recession headlines.”