ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 1.9 points to 80.1 this week in Australia, with personal finances a key factor in the upward trend.
This is the first week since mid-February to lift above the baseline of 80 - almost eight months ago.
Consumer confidence is 4.5 points below the same week a year ago, but is now above the 2023 weekly average of 78.2.
The improved index is driven by lifts in confidence around personal finances, according to ANZ and Roy Morgan, after new RBA Governor Michele Bullock left official interest rates unchanged for the fourth straight month this month.
ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell said the consumer confidence index is now trending up, but warned it is still in weak territory.
“Confidence about personal finances have been key to the recent upward trend,” Timbrell said.
Now over a fifth of Australians (21% - up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 49% (down 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Looking forward, 30% (up 1ppt) expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 34% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Only 8% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over one-third (36% - down 1ppt) that expect ‘bad times’.
In the longer term, 13% (up 2ppts) of Australians are now expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 20% (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.
“One less encouraging reason ‘current finances’ confidence is likely trending up may be because the question asks participants to compare their current finances to a year ago, and inflation and interest rates were already a central issue for households in late 2022,” Timbrell said.
“It may also reflect wage and employment growth over the last year, which have offset some effects of inflation and higher rates for many households.”
Meanwhile, New Zealand’s consumer confidence hit 86.4 for the month of September. NZ consumer confidence is measured monthly compared to weekly in Australia.
The index in NZ has performed slightly better than Australia over the last few months, including a 6.3 points lift in June to 85.5.
Retail NZ CEO Carolyn Young said some of this lift in the country is driven around events such as World of Wearable Art held in September.
“It is expected that we will continue to see an increase in price rises in the September quarter, which will continue to drive the core inflationary issues,” Young said. “New Zealand has seen strong migration figures in the last quarter and a probable rate increase in November may balance each other out.
“It’s too early to tell if we have turned the corner on sustained consumer confidence.”