Total monthly retail sales across Australia are predicted to hit $40 billion for the first time ever this August, according to new data from Roy Morgan.
This represents a lift of 6 per cent compared to the same month last year.
All categories are expected to see growth, with department stores set to record the lowest growth of just 2.3 per cent to $1.66 billion.
Fashion is tipped to be stronger, with growth in that category forecast to grow by 5.7 per cent and hit $3.06 billion.
The three categories driving the most growth are household goods, hospitality and ‘other retailing’ – including the likes of hairdressers. Household goods are tipped to grow by 8.8 per cent to almost $6.7 billion, with hospitality lifting by 6.2 per cent to $5.9 billion, and other retailing projected to grow 5.7 per cent to just over $7 billion.
The largest category is food – think supermarkets – with expected sales of over $15.6 billion in August, up 4.6 per cent on a year ago and representing 39 per cent of all forecast retail sales in August.
Overall, non-food categories are projected to grow by 6.9 per cent to over $24.3 billion in sales for August.
Roy Morgan data also shows the states with the most growth in total retail spending, with New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia in the lead.
The fastest retail sales growth by state is set to be in Western Australia with an increase of 7.2 per cent on a year ago to total retail sales of over $4.8 billion in August, just ahead of South Australia, up 6.4 per cent to over $2.6 billion.
Australia’s largest state, New South Wales, is also set to enjoy faster-than-average growth, with retail sales projected to increase 6.1 per cent to over $12 billion for the first time in a single month.
There is also solid growth projected for Victoria, up 5.9 per cent to over $9.9 billion, Queensland, up 5.5 per cent to $8.8 billion, and Tasmania, up 4.7 per cent to over $820 million.
The Northern Territory, with estimated annual growth of 7.6 per cent to over $350 million, is set to grow faster than anywhere else. In contrast, projected growth for the ACT, at only 4.6 per cent to almost $660 million, is the lowest of any state or territory.
These predictions come despite a challenging backdrop for Australian retailers, with many facing headwinds across their bottom line amid rising costs, while weather, geopolitical conflicts and elevated interest rates push consumers to tighten their purse strings.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics are expected to release its monthly spending data for July later this month.