There is an air of uncertainty about the coming months in New Zealand after Worldline NZ and Stats NZ shared mixed results on the current local economy.
Peak body Retail NZ pointed to Worldline’s consumer spending data for January 2026, which shows core retail spending lifted just 0.6 per cent compared to the same month last year.
This result in itself is a “glimmer of hope” for retailers, according to the peak body, as the month included significant weather events that impacted spending in several regions – most notably Bay of Plenty was down 3.4 per cent and Gisborne down 1 per cent.
The numbers have been bolstered by a positive 1.3 per cent gain in Auckland/Northland.
“Its great to see some positive sales,” Retail NZ CEO Carolyn Young said. “It gives us some hope that those green shoots we have been talking about for several months might start to come through more strongly.”
Despite it being early days, and the result being off a low base, Young said this will give retailers something to be upbeat about following the disappointing December sales and the recently released unemployment data from Stats NZ.
The unemployment rate for the December 2025 quarter rose slightly to 5.4 percent, its highest rate since September 2015. Young said this uptick means retailers will be preparing for some flat or even slow months ahead, as consumers continue to focus on just getting by.
It also indicates that it could be some time before consumer confidence improves to a point where retailers will see an upturn in sales in non-core expenses.
“Retailers have been experiencing tough trading conditions for some time now, and while business confidence is largely positive overall, it is clear it could be some time before New Zealanders feel confident enough in the economic conditions to increase their discretionary spending,” Young said.
“Many retailers will be feeling as though they are just treading water as the economy moves sideways, rather than forwards. It is just another example of the difficult environment our retailers are faced with, with Centrix data released yesterday also showing retail business liquidations were up 34 per cent year-on-year.
“However, many retailers are choosing to remain hopeful, with credit demand increasing 13% for that same period, reflecting some confidence among business owners to invest further into their business.”
According to Worldline data, consumer spending through all core retail merchants using its payment networks during 2026 reached NZ$4.023 billion.
The bank’s chief sales officer Bruce Proffit said the annual growth rate seen in January 2026 compared to 2025 was not high but was at least a positive start to the year.
“But we also noted a sharp fall in spending on Wednesday 21 January, the day of storms and heavy rainfall that had tragic impacts in some areas,” he said.
Underlying core retail spending through Worldline on this Wednesday was down 5.6 per cent, from NZ$125 million on Wednesday 22 January 2025, compared to NZ$118 million on Wednesday 21 January this year.
Proffit said the negative effect on spending continued in Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and Waikato (which includes Coromandel) over the following Auckland Anniversary long weekend, including spending at hospitality merchants.
“The total hospitality spending through Worldline NZ’s payments over the four days ending 26 January for these three regions plus Auckland/Northland was NZ$71.2 million, down 8.7 per cent on Auckland Anniversary weekend last year,” he added.
“In contrast, Wellington Anniversary weekend had seen hospitality spending down 7 per cent amongst the combined Palmerston North, Whanganui, Wairarapa, Wellington regions but this appears to be due to local economy factors, rather than the weather-related ones.
“The net effect of the storms over the month resulted in Bay of Plenty and Gisborne being amongst the weakest regions in the country in terms of the annual change in spending.”
Annual growth of core retail spending through Worldline NZ’s payments network in January 2026 was lowest in Bay of Plenty (down 3.4 per cent), Taranaki (down 3 per cent) and Gisborne (down 1 per cent). Growth was highest in Whanganui (up 2.5 per cent), Hawke’s Bay (up 1.9 per cent) and Palmerston North (up 1.9 per cent).