Consumer confidence across New Zealand has slipped by 4.1 points in July 2025, according to new data from ANZ bank and Roy Morgan.
This follows a few months of zig zagging by the index, with June being 98.8 – the highest in 2025 – a jump up from 92.9 in May. In April, the index was 98.3.
According to ANZ and Roy Morgan, the proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item – which they call the best retail indicator – fell 1 point to minus 8, remaining very weak.
Inflation expectations lifted 0.2 percentage points to 5.1 per cent, the highest since April 2023. Food price inflation of 4.2 per cent year-on-year probably has a lot to do with it
The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions fell 4 points to 100.9. The current conditions index fell 5 points to 85.4.
Net perceptions of current personal financial situations dropped a sharp 8 points and are very weak at minus 21 per cent with only 23 per cent of New Zealanders (down 2 per cent points on a month ago) saying they are 'better off' financially than a year ago compared to a rising 44 per cent (up 5ppts) who say they are 'worse off'.
However, New Zealanders are still broadly positive about the year ahead with a net 11 per cent of respondents expect to be better off this time next year with 39 per cent (down 4 per cent points) saying they expect to be 'better off' financially compared to 27 per cent (up 4 per cent points) who expect to be 'worse off', giving up last month’s gains.
In July a net 8 per cent of New Zealanders think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, down 1 per cent and not encouraging for retailers with 42 per cent (up 1ppt) saying now is a 'bad time to buy' major household items compared to just over a third, 34 per cent (unchanged) that say now is a 'good time to buy'.
Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook over the next 12 months fell 3 points to minus 16 per cent. The 5-year-ahead measure was steady at a positive 7.
House price inflation expectations fell from 3.6 per cent year-over-year to 2.9 per cent year-over-year, its lowest level in over a year.
Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations lifted from 4.9 per cent to 5.1 per cent, the highest in two years.
Interestingly, New Zealand consumer confidence in July was above the average for Australia, which ANZ and Roy Morgan measure weekly. In mid-July, Australian consumer confidence was at 86.3.