ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 1.8pts to 75.9 this week and has now spent eleven straight weeks below the mark of 80. This is the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008.
The last time consumer confidence spent at least eleven weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.
The 1.8pts drop follows a 2.1pts fall last week on the eve of the Federal Budget release.
Consumer confidence is now 13.4pts below the same week a year ago, May 9-15, 2022 (89.3) and 4.4pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.3.
Around the states, consumer confidence was down in NSW, Queensland, WA and SA but up in Victoria.
ANZ and Roy Morgan report that the driver of this week’s decrease was less confidence about personal financial situations compared to a year ago and over the next year, while views on the Australian economy were largely unchanged after last week’s Federal Budget.
Now 17% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, compared to 56% (up 3ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (a new record high figure for this indicator). This is the biggest net negative (-39) on this question in the history of the survey.
Looking forward, 30% (down 2ppts) expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 37% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 37% (down 1ppt) that expect ‘bad times’.
In the longer term, 12% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years, compared to 19% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.
Meanwhile, 18% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 55% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell said ‘economic conditions’ rose, perhaps in part due to the announcement of the surplus in the Federal Budget last week.
“Confidence fell for both present and future financial conditions and the subindex for whether it is a ‘good time to buy a major household item’,” Timbrell said. “Notably, ‘current financial conditions’ fell to its lowest value on record since 2001.
“Among the housing cohorts, confidence fell for those renting (-4.1) and those paying off their homes (-2.2), while it rose for those who own their homes outright (+2.0).”