Australia’s unemployment rate has dropped by 0.2% in November 2022 according to Roy Morgan, as Australia faces the first restriction-free months since March 2020. The rate now sits at 9%.
The decrease in unemployment saw the overall employed workforce hitting a record high above 14.9 million, and a reduction in the number of Australians looking for work.
Meanwhile, under-employment sits at 9.2% of the workforce in the same month. Overall unemployment and under-employment decreased by 202,000 to 2.71 million (or 18.2% of the workforce).
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said the end of COVID-19 restrictions in mid-October means the labour market is now operating without artificial constraints for the first time since February 2020.
“Even more interesting is how Australia’s labour market has changed compared to the period immediately prior to the first COVID-19 restrictions being introduced," Levine said.
In the first half of March 2020, Levine said that overall employment was at 12.87 million, which has since increased by over 700,000 in the past two-and-a-half years. In that time, full time employment increased by 55% and part-time employment increased by 45%.
In early March 2020, Levine said, about 66% of jobs were full-time compared to 34% of jobs being part-time.
“But the share of part-time jobs has now been consistently growing for over two decades."
Roy Morgan noted that fewer people looking for full-time work was down 19,000 to 506,000 and part-time work was down 5,000 to 832,000.
Levine said that the share of Australians now in the workforce (employed or looking for work) is now at a near record-high of 69.7% compared to 67% pre-pandemic. The share in employment has increased, up from 61.5% pre-pandemic to 63.4% today.
Despite the increase in overall employment, Levine noted that unemployment is also higher today, up by 319,000 to 1.33 million, and that the increase in part-time employment has also led to an increase in under-employment by 230,000 to 1.37 million.
“The story of the labour market during the last two-and-a-half years, during which borders were closed and in-bound immigration was heavily restricted, is that all the key employment indicators have increased significantly after an initial shock in late March 2020 when the pandemic first hit and the entire country went into a six-week long lockdown period,” Levine continued.
“The Federal Government’s injection of over $500 billion of stimulus into the Australian economy during 2020-21 saved the country from a prolonged recession and created a demand surge for many parts of the economy that continues to this day.
“This surge in demand has led to record Retail Sales since mid-2020 and created a huge demand for labour which has lifted employment to record highs, although there are still over 2.7 million Australians (18.2% of the workforce) now unemployed or under-employed.”
Levine said the flow-on effects on the record demand include the largest spike in inflation since the early 1990s and the sharpest increases to interest rates for nearly 30 years.
“The rising interest rates have yet to make a significant dent in Australia’s growth story, with the latest ABS GDP figures showing the economy grew 0.6% in the September quarter 2022, and the economy is now 5.9% larger than a year ago.
“Looking forward into 2023, we expect to see the rising interest rates start to impact the economy as the fixed rate mortgages many Australians took out during the pandemic reset to far higher rates and inflationary pressures continue to build on businesses and workers alike.
“Australia out-performed most of the world during the pandemic years of 2020-2022 and is well-placed to continue that out-performance next year, but there remains much uncertainty around the global economic picture heading into 2023.”