Australian consumer confidence has stalled at historically low levels, although households are showing a slightly greater willingness to make major purchases.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index was virtually unchanged at 67.7, from 68 the previous week. The result is 16.3 points lower than a year ago and 4.3 points below the 2026 weekly average of 72.
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence was broadly unchanged last week but remained historically low, recording its twelfth-lowest result since the series began in 1973,” ANZ economist Sophia Angala said.
Buying intentions were the only area of improvement. The share of respondents who said now is a good time to buy major household items rose three percentage points to 17 per cent. The share who said it is a bad time fell three points to 44 per cent.
Angala said the rise may reflect households bringing purchases forward while inflation expectations remain elevated.
Weaker sentiment about the economy offset those gains. Almost half of Australians (49 per cent – up 4ppts) now expect bad economic times over the next 12 months, while only 5 per cent expect good times. Over the next five years, 6 per cent expect good times, down two points, and 32 per cent expect bad times.
Angala linked the softer economic outlook to easing labour market conditions. The unemployment rate rose in September to its highest level since 2021.
Household finances remain under pressure. A majority of 56 per cent said their families are worse off than a year ago, up one point, compared with 15 per cent who said they are better off. Looking ahead, 44 per cent expect to be worse off this time next year, up two points, and 20 per cent expect to be better off.
By state, confidence fell in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, and rose slightly in Queensland and Western Australia.
The result follows several volatile weeks for sentiment. Confidence fell a combined 6.8 points over three weeks around the Reserve Bank’s decision to lift the cash rate to 4.60 per cent, its highest level in more than 15 years. It reached 67.1, the tenth-lowest result in the series’ history, before recovering by 0.9 points.
ANZ does not expect a quick turnaround for spending.
“Overall, persistently weak confidence suggests household spending growth is likely to remain subdued over the near term,” Angala said.
ANZ expects the Reserve Bank to raise the cash rate by another 25 basis points at its November meeting. ANZ pointed to the central bank’s September minutes, which repeated its concerns about upside risks to inflation.
A rise of that size would take the cash rate to 4.85 per cent, its highest level since 2008. ANZ noted in earlier commentary that this would likely weigh on consumer spending.