ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged at 75.6 in mid- July as retailers and brands prepare for the new financial year.
Consumer confidence is 10.7 points lower than a year ago, and now 3.8 points above the 2026 weekly average of 71.8.
ANZ economist Sophia Angala said the index nudged up by just 0.3 points over the last week, which was driven up by a jump in buying intentions, but dragged back by weaker confidence in personal finances and the economic outlook.
“The re-escalation of conflict in the Middle East last week likely weighed on confidence and partly contributed to the tick-up in weekly inflation expectations,” Angala said.
Now 17 per cent (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to a majority of 51 per cent (unchanged) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Views on personal finances over the next year deteriorated, with 22 per cent (down 2ppts) of respondents expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 39 per cent (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Meanwhile, 7 per cent (up 1ppt) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year, compared to 39 per cent (up 2ppts) that expect ‘bad times’.
In the longer term, 8 per cent (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to over a quarter (27 per cent – unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.
Net buying intentions had improved this week, with 20 per cent (up 1ppt) of respondents saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 40 per cent (down 3ppts) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
Angala indicated that the future of Australian consumer confidence is quite dependent on interest rates. She said that while ANZ Bank’s base case remains for the cash rate to stay at 4.35 per cent until the second half of 2027, she and her team do not rule out the risk of further inflationary pressures to push the RBA to increase the cash rate in November – “assuming the Monetary Policy Board leaves the cash rate unchanged at its August meeting.”
An analysis by state shows consumer confidence driven up by a large increase in New South Wales, but was unchanged in Victoria, and down in Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia.