Australian consumer confidence has fallen in the first week of July amid concerns over the economy in the next year.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 1.2 points to 74.7 over the last week, which is 13.9 points lower than a year ago, but 3.2 points above the 2026 weekly average of 71.5. The slip over the last week followed two weeks of modest rises.
The main driver of the index drop was net sentiment regarding the economy over the next year. Less than one in 14 Australians (7 per cent – up 1ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year, compared to 40 per cent (up 5ppts) that expect ‘bad times’.
Net views regarding the Australian economy over the next five years were virtually unchanged this week with 9 per cent (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to over a quarter, 26 per cent (up 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Meanwhile, 15 per cent (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to a majority of 51 per cent (down 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Views on personal finances over the next year deteriorated this week with 22 per cent (down 2ppts) of respondents expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 40 per cent (up 1 ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Buying intentions were virtually unchanged this week with just 19 per cent (unchanged) of respondents saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 42 per cent (down 1ppt) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ economist Sophia Angala said buying intentions was the only subindex to improve last week, likely supported by end-of-financial-year sales during the survey period.
“The decline in confidence coincided with the release of the RBA’s June Monetary Policy Board meeting minutes, which reinforced the board’s hawkish stance and the risk of a further rate hike,” Angala said. “The board also noted that economic activity was slowing ‘as expected’.”
“Consumer confidence remains well below its long-run average, pointing to softness in consumer demand over the near term. We expect annual household consumption growth to ease from 2.5 per cent in 2025 to 1.1 per cent in 2026.”
An analysis by state shows consumer confidence increased marginally in Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, but fell more significantly in New South Wales, and Western Australia.