ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 0.3 points to 72.4 this week as the end-of-financial-year (EOFY) sales period comes to a head. Consumer confidence is now at its lowest since early April 2020.
The index has now spent sixteen straight weeks below the mark of 80. The last time it spent at least sixteen weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.
Consumer confidence is now 9.3pts below the same week a year ago, June 13-19, 2022 (81.7) and 6.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 79.2.
ANZ and Roy Morgan noted there were negative moves for personal finances and views on the Australian economy this week, although there was an improvement in buying sentiment as the EOFY and Mid-Year sales period continues.
Now only 15% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (a new record low for this indicator) compared to 56% (unchanged) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (an equal record high for this indicator).
Looking forward, 27% (down 1ppt) expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator for over three years since April 2020) while almost two-fifths, 39% (down 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Only 5% (down 1 ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly three years since August 2020) compared to 44% (up 1ppt) that expect ‘bad times’.
Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak, ANZ and Roy Morgan added, with only 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years (the lowest figure for this indicator for over 30 years since December 1990) compared to 23% (up 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.
Now 20% (up 1ppt) of Australians say it is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 53% (down 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell said the index this week is among the four weakest results since the pandemic began.
“Notably, confidence about ‘current financial conditions’ fell to a new low, after declining 10.6pts in the past four weeks,” Timbrell said. “This is the third consecutive week with ‘future financial conditions’ below 90, the longest it has been this low on record.
“‘Future economic conditions’ is at its lowest since early April 2020, as is confidence among outright homeowners, which fell for a fifth straight week.
“Confidence declined among renters to its recent all-time low from mid-May, while it rose for those paying off their homes.”