ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 1.1pts to 79.3 this week after the RBA paused a run of ten consecutive interest rate increases last week.
The index has now increased 2.8pts from its mid-March low of 76.5 – the lowest it has been since early in the pandemic.
However, this is the sixth week in a row the index has been below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008, according to ANZ and Roy Morgan.
The two entities added that the last time consumer confidence spent at least six weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession, when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.
Consumer confidence is now 15.3pts below the same week a year ago, April 4-10, 2022 (94.6) and 1.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 81.2. It was up in most states including Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but down slightly in NSW.
The driver of this week’s increase was improved buying sentiment, said ANZ and Roy Morgan, with more Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items following the RBA’s decision to pause interest rate increases. There was little change in views on personal finances or the Australian economy.
19% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, compared to 52% (unchanged) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Looking ahead, 32% (unchanged), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 33% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’.
8% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months, compared to 37% (up 1ppt) that expect ‘bad times’.
Meanwhile, 11% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years, compared to 20% (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’. And 20% (up 2ppts) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 52% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said this small rise in consumer confidence is the most positive result following an RBA meeting since before rate hikes began in May last year.
“This was also the first time confidence had increased for three consecutive weeks since November 2022, with a cumulative rise of 2.8pts since mid-March,” Birch said. “But overall confidence is still very weak, stuck below 80pts for a sixth consecutive week.
“Household inflation expectations dropped 0.6ppt to 5.1%, the lowest since mid-February, with a range of data confirming Australia has passed peak annual inflation.”