ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence lifted 1.4pts to 77.3 this week but has now spent twelve straight weeks below the mark of 80. This is the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008.
The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least twelve weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.
This is among the worst ten results since January 2020, according to ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell, noting that seven of these occurred between March and May 2023.
“This highlights the impact of cost-of-living pressure and rising interest rates, despite low unemployment and an acceleration in annual wage growth to 3.7% y/y in Q1,” Timbrell said.
“Confidence jumped for those renting (+9.6pts), while it was down for those paying off their homes (-3.7pts) and those who own their homes outright (-1.8pts).
“Those paying off their homes have lower confidence than other housing cohorts.”
Consumer confidence is now 13.5pts below the same week a year ago, May 16-22, 2022 (90.8) and 2.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.2.
Around the states, consumer confidence was up in Victoria, Queensland, WA and SA but down in New South Wales.
The driver of this week’s increase was relatively more confidence about personal financial situations compared to a year ago, ANZ and Roy Morgan reported, while other indicators were essentially unchanged compared to a week ago.
Now 18% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 49% (down 7ppts) who say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Looking forward, under a third of Australians (30% - unchanged) expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 36% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Only 8% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to nearly two-fifths (39% - up 2ppts) that expect ‘bad times’.
Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak with only 11% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to over a fifth (21% - up 2ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.
When it comes to buying intentions, 17% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while over half (53% - down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.