ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has improved slightly this week but still remains at record lows, with the index appearing to be held down by the war between the United States, Iran and Israel.
The index nudged up by 2.2 points to 64.5 this week after a ceasefire agreement was tabled early last week and appears to be holding this week. But there is uncertainty about whether this will lead to the end of the war altogether or if it will continue.
The lift in consumer confidence also follows the cut to the fuel excise.
Despite the lift, consumer confidence is a large 19.7 points lower than the same week a year ago, and now 9.1 points below the 2026 weekly average of 73.6.
Although a second straight weekly improvement and the highest result for a month, this is the fourth lowest Consumer Confidence in the index stretching back over 50 years since 1972.
Driving this week’s increase was due primarily to less negativity about personal finances and the Australian economy over the next year, and next five years.
Fewer than one-in-eight Australians (12 per cent – down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 59 per cent (down 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Around one in five (19 per cent – unchanged) are expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43 per cent (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Net sentiment regarding the economy over the next year remains volatile with 4 per cent (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ compared to half (50 per cent – down 4ppts) that expect ‘bad times’.
Meanwhile, 6 per cent of Australians (unchanged) are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 29 per cent (down 3ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.
As for net buying intentions, 14 per cent (down 2ppts) of respondents say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 51 per cent (down 4ppts) who think it is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ economist Sophia Angala said most subindices improved last week, which may have been driven by news of the US-Iran ceasefire.
“Ceasefire developments led to a brief easing in oil prices last week, which likely supported the fall in inflation expectations,” Angala said. “However, on a four-week moving average basis, inflation expectations remain at their highest since this subindex series began in 2010.
“Across the housing cohorts, there was an increase in confidence among outright homeowners and renters, while confidence fell for mortgage holders. However, on a four-week moving average basis, confidence across all three housing cohorts remains at decade lows.”
An analysis by state shows consumer confidence improved in the three largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland, unchanged in Western Australia, but down in South Australia.