ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has fallen by 1.8 points to 87.0 in the week the Reserve Bank (RBA) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent.
Despite the slip, consumer confidence is 6.8 points above the same week a year ago and just 0.5 points above the 2025 weekly average of 86.5.
ANZ economist Sophia Angala said the slip may have been influenced by the RBA’s post-meeting commentary being more dovish than anticipated and the weaker outlook for growth, employment and inflation it expects from global trade uncertainty.
“We continue to expect progress to be made in negotiations between the US and its trading partners,” Angala said. “This combined with Australia’s expected resilience, particularly with regards to the labour market, will likely lead to a relatively shallow easing cycle.
“We expect a 25bp rate cut in August and another in Q1 2026.”
An analysis by housing status shows that it was homeowners that drove the weekly decrease. Consumer confidence amongst this group has now declined in the week of both interest rate cuts this year and was down 4.8 points to 85.7. Meanwhile confidence among people paying off a mortgage increased 2.3 points to 89.7 this week – but not enough to drive the overall index up.
There were mixed results across the index, with the biggest driver of the decrease being the increasing concerns about the Australian economy’s performance over the next 12 months.
Under a fifth of Australians (18 per cent - unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 42 per cent (up 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Net views on personal finances over the next year dropped slightly this week with 28 per cent (down 2ppts) of respondents expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30 per cent (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Just over one-in-eight Australians (13 per cent - down 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to well over a quarter, 29 per cent (up 5ppts) that expect ‘bad times’.
Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer-term deteriorated this week with just 13 per cent (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to nearly a quarter (24 per cent - up 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.
Offsetting the deterioration across other subindices, net buying intentions improved for a third straight week, with 23 per cent (unchanged) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 35 per cent (down 2ppts) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’. The latter is the lowest figure for this indicator for over three years since March 2022.
Across the states, consumer confidence fell in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, and lifted slightly in Western Australia.