ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has fallen by 4.4 points to 71.2 in late July, hitting its lowest rating since mid-June.
Consumer confidence is now 15.5 points lower than a year ago, and 0.6 points below the 2026 weekly average of 71.8.
ANZ economist Sophia Angala said all subindices declined, driven by the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, renewed inflation risks and a gradual easing in labour market conditions.
She added that weekly inflation expectations also ticked up this week to its highest level since mid-June. This comes ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ expected Q2 consumer price index data, due to be released today, July 29.
“We forecast trimmed mean (underlying) inflation to rise 3.7 per cent y/y, a touch below the RBA’s forecast of 3.8 per cent y/y,” Angala said.
“Lower-than-expected inflation and the broader slowing of activity should see the RBA cash rate remain at 4.35 per cent at the August meeting. However, a hike cannot be ruled out, either in August or November.”
Driving consumer confidence lower this week was less confidence across all five indicators, and especially current buying conditions, and views on personal finances and the performance of the Australian economy over the next year.
Now 16 per cent (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to a rising majority of 52 per cent (up 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Views on personal finances over the next year deteriorated significantly this week with 20 per cent (down 2ppts) of respondents expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 43 per cent (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Net sentiment regarding the economy over the next year declined this week with 6 per cent (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ compared to 41 per cent (up 2ppts) that expect ‘bad times’.
In the longer term, just 7 per cent (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to almost a third (30 per cent – up 3ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.
As for buying intentions, this sub-indice deteriorated this week with 17 per cent (down 3ppts) of respondents saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 44 per cent (up 4ppts) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
An analysis by state shows consumer confidence falling in all five mainland states including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia.