ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence appears to be on a rollercoaster ride, dropping 3.5 points to 80.5 over the last week, following a shoot-up to 84 ahead of Australia Day and a plummet to 79.3 in early January – the lowest point since July 2024.
The recent fall over the last week follows a jump in inflation to 3.8 per cent, shared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) less than a week ago, spurring talk of interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA is set to make its decision today.
Consumer confidence over the last week is now 8 points lower than this time last year, and 1.6 points below the 2026 weekly average of 82.1.
The drop in confidence was driven by shifts in confidence about personal finances and views on the Australian economy.
Under a fifth of Australians (18 per cent – down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to a rising 45 per cent (up 6ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Views on personal finances over the next year dipped to multi-year lows this week with only 24 per cent (down 1ppt) of respondents expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. That is the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly six years since the start of the pandemic in March 2020.
Meanwhile, over a third (36 per cent – up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’, which is the highest figure for this indicator for over 18 months since June 2024.
Net sentiment regarding the economy over the next year deteriorated this week with just 8 per cent (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to a third (33 per cent – up 3ppts) that expect ‘bad times’.
Over the longer-term, 10 per cent (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 26 per cent (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.
As for buying intentions, 21 per cent (down 2ppts) of respondents say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 39 per cent (up 2ppts) that think it is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ economist Sophia Angala said households are feeling less optimistic about their personal finances, with the ‘future financial conditions’ subindex at its lowest level since late November 2023, which was soon after the RBA increased the cash rate to 4.35 per cent.
“The tick up in weekly inflation expectations and the broad-based decline in confidence may have been influenced by discussion of a potential rate hike ahead of this week’s RBA meeting,” Angala said. “This follows the release of Q4 2025 inflation data, which showed the trimmed mean measure, the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, came in higher than the RBA’s expectations.”
Across the country, there were decreases in the three largest states of New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland, but increases in both Western Australia and South Australia.