ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 2.1pts to 77.2 this week, defying the increase of 1.1pts last week after the RBA decided not to raise interest rates in early April.
This is the now the seventh straight week the index has been below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008.
The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least seven weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession, when the index was conducted on a monthly basis, according to ANZ and Roy Morgan.
Consumer Confidence is now 19.6pts below the same week a year ago, April 11-17, 2022 (96.8) and 3.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 81.0.
Consumer Confidence was down in most States including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but up slightly in Western Australia – now the only State with Consumer Confidence above the mark of 80.
Roy Morgan and ANZ said the driver of this week’s decrease was less confidence about personal financial situations over the next 12 months and fewer Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.
Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, compared to 50% (down 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Looking forward, 30% (down 2ppts) expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 36% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Only 6% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months, compared to 36% (down 1ppt) that expect ‘bad times’.
Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak, according to ROy Morgan and ANZ, with only 12% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years, compared to 21% (up 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.
When it comes to buying intentions, 18% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 55% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell said consumer confidence fell to its “seventh-weakest” result since March 2020, despite the RBA’s pause this month, rising house prices and low unemployment.
“Though, the confidence gap between homeowners with mortgages (the least confident cohort) and other housing cohorts was slightly less than average for the year,” Timbrell said. “Confidence in the near-term future declined the most, with a 5.5pt drop in ‘future financial conditions’ and a 1.2pt drop in expectations of economic conditions over the next year.
“The sub-index for whether it is a good ‘time to buy a major household item’ dropped to its lowest since April 2020.
“All sub-indices of confidence were lower than average for 2023.”