ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has increased 1.5pts to 83.1 this week, continuing its upward trajectory since earlier this month. It had increased 2.1pts in mid-November, breaking a course of six-straight declines prior.
This week, consumer confidence is now 22.9pts below the same week a year ago, November 27/28, 2021 (106.0). In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 6pts below the 2022 weekly average of 89.1.
Although the wider move in Consumer Confidence was up this week, there were mixed results around the nation. Consumer Confidence increased in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia but decreased in New South Wales and South Australia.
Across the index, the two questions that drove the weekly increase related to personal financial situations compared to a year ago and over the next year.
Now 25% of Australians (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 46% (down 3ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Looking forward, nearly a third of Australians (31% -up 1ppt) expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Only 6% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 39% (unchanged) that expect ‘bad times.’
Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term is still very weak, according to Roy Morgan, with only 13% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 16% (down 2ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.
When it comes to buying intentions, 24% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while more than twice as many (47% - up 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ head of Australian economics David Plank said consumer confidence increased 1.8% last week, with a cumulative gain of 5.6% over the past three weeks.
“Confidence is at its highest since early October but is still at exceptionally weak levels,” Plank said. “The increase was mainly driven by the ‘financial situation compared to a year ago’ and ‘financial situation next year’ rising 9% and 2.8% respectively. Household inflation expectations dropped 0.1ppt to 6.2%, its seventh straight week above 6%.
“The drop in October retail sales suggests weak confidence may finally be impacting household spending. But changing seasonal patterns may explain some of the softness. ANZ-observed spending data from last week will provide an insight into whether consumers held back in October to spend big on Black Friday sales.”