Business confidence among retailers has slumped to a new low in June as the bottom end of overall business confidence among all industries drops.
Roy Morgan data shows that retail business confidence was above 78 points in May, but has since slipped to a low of 66.5. This is well below the neutral level of 100.
Retail joins five other industries that have starkly low confidence, including accommodation and food services (68.6), construction (66.7), agriculture (63.5) and public administration and safety (63.2).
At the top end of the scale, mining is the only industry with a confidence level above 100, with a score of 114.9. This is down from 124.1 in May.
In June, the more confident industries include education and training (98.7), arts and recreational services (98.2), utilities (92.6), and information media and telcos (92.0).
The average score across all industries in June was 77.5, which Roy Morgan confirmed is the fourth lowest business confidence score of all time. This is up by 1.4 points on the prior month.
Driving the small increase in June was more confidence about the next 12 months for business finances and for the wider Australian economy.
Now a third of businesses (33.4 per cent – up 4.4ppts) expect to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while under a third (31.5 per cent – down 2.6ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’.
In addition, now 41.6 per cent (up 3.1ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while a reduced majority of 57.1 per cent (down 1.9 ppts) expect ‘bad times’.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said the lift in business confidence was driven higher by more confidence about the next year for businesses’ own financial prospects as well as improving sentiment about the broader Australian economy.
“However, despite the small increase, Business Confidence in the June quarter 2026 is at a record low of 76.7, down 15.5pts from the March quarter 2026 (92.2).
“This is also below the previous record low of 84.3, during the September quarter 2020 amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Levine noted there was good news in June with the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East managing to hold and oil prices continuing to decline. Average retail petrol prices in June were at $1.67 a litre – the lowest monthly rate since January 2022 – before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spiked prices.
“The fall in petrol prices has impacted Australian views on inflation,” Levine said. “ANZ-Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations were at a record high of 7.3 per cent in late March 2026 and have dropped by 1.7 percentage points to 5.6 per cent in the last week of June – indicating Australians are less worried about runaway inflation.
“In turn, the pressure on the Reserve Bank (RBA) to raise interest rates has abated after three successive rate increases early in 2026; the RBA left rates unchanged at 4.35 per cent in mid-June.
Meanwhile, businesses’ views on the Australian economy’s performance over the next year improved 5 percentage points in June. Now 41.6 per cent (up 3.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ over the next year while 57.1 per cent (down 1.9 ppts) of businesses expect ‘bad times’.
In addition, views on businesses’ own prospects over the next year increased 7 percentage points. Now a third of businesses (33.4 per cent – up 4.4ppts) expect to be ‘better off’ this time next year compared to only 31.5 per cent (down 2.6ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’.
On a state-by-state basis, business confidence is again below 90 in all six states. Business confidence is at just 83.4 in New South Wales, and even lower in Queensland (78.1), Victoria (74.4), South Australia (71.2), Tasmania (70.5), and lowest of all in Western Australia at just 59.6.