Australians are tipped to spending $12 billion on Christmas gifts in 2025, according to new research from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) and Roy Morgan.
This is $200 million more than last year, with shoppers set to spend an average $757 each, with that up 7.1 per cent on last year.
Overall pre-Christmas retail spending for the six weeks from November 13 to Christmas Eve is forecast to reach $72.4 billion — a 4 per cent increase on 2024. This doesn’t just include gifting.
This increase is in line with forecasts for the Black Friday-Cyber Monday spending, which were also predicted to rise 4 per cent year-on-year.
The Christmas Gift Buying survey also shows that 68 per cent of Australian adults – around 15.9 million people – plan to buy gifts this year, down 9 per cent from 2024 as cost-of-living pressures persist.
ARA CEO Chris Rodwell said the data points to cautious but resilient consumer behaviour across the peak trading period.
“Retailers are seeing encouraging signs that Australians are planning ahead and spreading out their Christmas budgets,” Rodwell said. “After a challenging year, early shopping activity is helping to build momentum for the most important season for the sector, where many discretionary retailers making up to two-thirds of their annual profits.”
Australians are also getting a head start on gift buying this year, no doubt thanks to Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, with nearly one-in-three shoppers (29 per cent) saying they are buying gifts earlier than they did in 2024. Only 8 per cent are leaving it til later.
Younger Australians aged 18 to 34 are set to spend $3.5 billion on gifts, matched by those aged 35 to 49, who are the biggest individual spenders, averaging $853 each.
Only 22 per cent of Australians say they’re making more purchases online than a year ago – less than half the level seen in 2021 – with many returning to in-store experiences in search of value and connection.
Roy Morgan’s head of retail and consumer products, Catherine Jolley, added that AI is beginning to shape shopping trends, too.
“Retailers face a market where prices keep falling, delivery keeps speeding up, and AI is reshaping what people trust and distrust. In this environment, trust is your most important asset, distrust your largest risk,” Jolley said.
Rodwell is encouraging Australians to shop with trusted Australian brands.
“Christmas is when retail truly comes alive — it’s a vital season for businesses of all sizes,” he said. “We’re encouraging Australians to back the retailers who are part of their everyday lives, whether that’s a favourite local store, a national chain or a trusted online platform,” he said.
“Every purchase supports jobs, investment and community connection — the things that make Australian retail such an important part of the national story.”