Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL) is aiming for around 130 new stores across its four subsidiaries between now and FY31, but some brokers are questioning the goal.
The parent company of Rebel, Macpac, BCF and Supercheap Auto used its 2026 investor day to lay out a five-year strategy built around store network expansion, as well as an internal transformation program called Ignite and other key drivers.
At least one broker, Macquarie, has come back with a mixed verdict, modelling a shortfall against the retailer's own store targets and questioning whether footprint expansion is the best use of capital given online sales are growing faster than in-store.
The group’s network currently sits at roughly 790 stores across Australia and New Zealand as of May 2026, with brand-level targets implying growth toward the 900-store mark by FY31.
This includes around 44 new stores for Rebel, particularly focused in regional spaces, as well as around 12 new stores for Macpac. BCF, which also sells a range of clothing and footwear, is projecting between 20 to 30 new stores, with the group’s leading subsidiary Supercheap Auto targeting around 53 new stores.
Modelling by investment bank Macquarie assumes Super Retail falls short of its FY31 store target and queries the capital allocation logic.
In its note to investors, the broker’s modelling showed Super Retail will hit around 30 stores less than its 900 store target because they believe location availability is constrained. “
The bank also pointed out that Super Retail Group’s online retail sales are growing faster than in-store.
“We question whether focusing on in-store footprint expansion is the best allocation of capital, although we note that a hybrid in-store/online model (Click & Collect) is necessary for servicing regional areas,” the broker said.
Online sales have more than doubled across the group since FY19, from $201 million to $524 million in FY25. These sales peaked at $601 million in FY22, likely driven by pandemic measures. In the same timeframe, online sales contribution to total sales grew from 7 per cent to 13 per cent.
However, Super Retail noted that 93 per cent of all transactions are still completed in-store. Rebel and Macpac both have higher rates of home delivery over click and collect, with 14 per cent of omni-channel sales at Rebel and Macpac separately being home delivered. BCF and Supercheap Auto have higher rates of click and collect over home delivery.
Despite the questioning, Macquarie thinks Super Retail Group is expected to outperform, setting a 12-month target share price of $15.90. The group’s share price currently sits at $13.00 (April 17, 2026, 2pm). This has risen since the investor day presentation on June 11, when it was around $12.35, and up from a recent low of $10.94 on May 18.
Morgan Stanley, another investment bank, is not as peachy. It has given Super Retail’s stock an underweight rating, and has given a 12-month target price of $11.20.
This broker thinks sustaining attractive store unit economics while delivering cost efficiencies to remain competitive will be key for Super Retail Group.
“SUL's transformation program was presented at a high level, but the direction is clear: driving greater efficiency across the business,” Morgan Stanley told investors. “We view supply chain automation/optimisation and the staged ERP migration as the most tangible enablers.”
For Rebel in particular, Morgan Stanley was not as gung-ho about its regional expansion push. The broker thinks the bigger earnings unlocking is improved operational execution across merchandising, inventory planning, promotions and availability.
They also think Rebel’s push with private brands and exclusive licensing from 10 per cent to 20 per cent of sales should support gross profit margin, “but this remains execution-dependent.”
Super Retail’s store push is joined by a transformation program called Ignite, which the group claims should drive $75 million in annual cost savings from FY29, helped along by ERP migration, AI integration, and other operational changes.
The company's own materials show total capital expenditure stepping up to around $165 million in the current year, with project and systems spending – much of it tied to Ignite – expected to be elevated through FY27 and FY28 before the savings are expected to flow.
The largest capital expenditure in recent years and ahead are expected to be in its retail portfolio, including maintenance, new sites and relocations.
According to Super Retail Group, new and relocated stores deliver returns above the 15 per cent after-tax ROC target.
Supercheap Auto and BCF are also both pushing into vehicle fitment (4WD and auto-electrical) as a point of difference against online competitors.