Australian business confidence has plummeted to its lowest level on record, with new Roy Morgan data painting a grim picture for the local economy as global uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on sentiment.
Roy Morgan Business Confidence fell 14.2 points in April to a new record low of 76.5, surpassing the previous record set during the first full month of pandemic lockdowns in April 2020, when the index sat at 76.9. The result will be of serious concern to fashion and retail businesses already navigating a challenging trading environment.
Business confidence has now fallen a combined 28.5 points in 2026 after ending last year at a positive rating of 105.
The biggest driver of the fall was a sharp loss of confidence in the Australian economy's near-term performance, with 61.3 per cent of businesses now expecting bad times over the next year, up 13.5 percentage points on the previous month. Only 37.2 per cent of businesses expect good times for the economy over the next 12 months, down 13.2 percentage points.
For the first time since November 2023, business confidence has dropped below the neutral level of 100 in all six states. South Australia recorded the highest confidence of any state, though still in negative territory, buoyed by the landslide re-election of Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas.
Over the last three months there were only two industries with business confidence in positive territory above 100. Mining, which increased 24.3pts to 132.1 is by far the most confident industry and the only industry to have higher business confidence than a year ago.
The other industry in positive territory is Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services on 102.0, but down 31.5pts from a year ago.
Those just below the neutral level of 100 include Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services on 97.4 (down 12.8pts on a year ago), Education & Training on 95.5 (down 26.2pts on a year ago), and Accommodation & Food Services on 93.7 (down 24.6pts on a year ago).
There were only three industries with business confidence below 80 during the last three months including Wholesale Trade on 79.0 (down 11.9pts), Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing on 74.6, (down 6pts), and Construction on only 73.5, (down 25.7pts).
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing has had low business confidence for an extended period now with an average of only 80.1 over the last three years – clearly the lowest of any industry.
Consumer sentiment tells an equally sobering story. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down slightly to 67.2 for the week — well below the neutral level of 100 — with more Australians worried about the long-term state of the economy and fewer saying now is a good time to buy major household items, which fell two percentage points to just 15 per cent.
For the fashion industry, the data signals continued headwinds on consumer spending, with households under pressure from elevated interest rates, fuel price volatility and broader economic anxiety. The Reserve Bank raised interest rates for a third consecutive meeting this week, a move widely anticipated by market watchers but one that is likely to further suppress discretionary spending in the months ahead.