Australians are expected to spend $200 million more this year on back-to-school products, hitting a record forecast of $2.9 billion.
But, the new data from the Australian Retailers Association and Roy Morgan shows that the total number of shoppers is expected to drop this year, from 5.1 million in 2025 to 4.5 million in 2026. This makes up 21 per cent of the Australian population aged 18 or more.
The total lift in spending is being driven by a higher average spend of $573 per shopper, up by $48 from 2025.
ARA CEO Chris Rodwell said the cashflow boost for retailers is welcome, but the lower participation rate points to a worrying pattern.
“Back-to-School is the first major seasonal moment for retail after Boxing Day and peak-season trading. While these are largely essential purchases, they provide important early-year momentum for many retailers,” Rodwell said.
“At the same time, we are seeing fewer households participating in major retail events in the past year, while those that can afford to spend are spending more. It’s a narrowing market, and it reflects the pressure many families remain under.”
Women continue to drive most back-to-school spending, with 2.6 million women (24 per cent) participating compared with 1.9 million men (18 per cent), though participation has fallen across both groups.
Just under half of shoppers (49 per cent) say they will spend more than last year, while 34 per cent plan to spend less.
Spending is concentrated into higher-ticket purchases, with 44 per cent of shoppers budgeting more than $500 and 22 per cent planning to spend more than $1,000, compared with just 15 per cent planning to spend $1000 or more a year ago.
“With 600,000 fewer Australians able to take part in essential school spending this year, it’s a strong sign some household budgets are still under stress,” Rodwell said. “Now is not the time to add further pressure through interest rate hikes, with consumer demand clearly constrained.”
Other key findings show that back-to-school purchasing remains heavily weighted to physical retail, with 60 per cent of shoppers planning to buy in-store, compared with 39 per cent online.
Spending again this year is being driven by everyday essentials, with school uniforms the top purchase for 56 per cent of shoppers, followed by stationery (55 per cent), footwear including school shoes (47 per cent), books (44 per cent), and lunch boxes and drink bottles (25 per cent).
Of those participating, 49 per cent are making purchases for primary school, 57 per cent for high school, and 10 per cent for university or TAFE. Around 4 per cent of purchases are for postgraduate study. Participants could select multiple options here.
Women remain the main household decision-makers, accounting for 75 per cent of back-to-school purchases, followed by men at 13 per cent, guardians at 6 per cent and students themselves at 2 per cent.
Many schools provide exemptions and financial support for those experiencing financial hardship – while some state governments also operate assistance programs.
This ARA-Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australian-wide cross-section of 10,977 Australians aged 18+ between Thursday December 11 and Monday December 15, 2025, and Monday January 5 and Thursday January 8, 2026, including 1,703 who are spending money on ‘back-to-school’ purchases.