Analysts: Super Retail Group faces a competitive storm

Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL) is facing ongoing competitive pressure, particularly with its Rebel subsidiary, according to analysts at Macquarie Bank. 

In a note to investors, the analysts claim that new entrants like Sports Direct via a distribution deal with Accent Group present challenges for Rebel, but added that Super Retail management expect their investments in stores and range to provide a defence. 

“Further, SUL are seeing a material unwinding of basket growth, with average basket size decreasing, albeit the number of transactions holding up.”

This comes as total sales for the group were up 4.5 per cent for weeks 27 to 44 in FY25 compared to the same time last year. 

Rebel reported a 4.4 per cent lift in total sales for weeks 27 to 44, which matches the same sales lift of 4.4 per cent in the first half of FY25. 

According to Super Retail Group, this continued growth for Rebel comes despite a $5 million net sales headwind associated with the impact of ex-tropical cyclone Alfred.

Macquarie Bank analysts added that the total group sales lift came despite sales slowing in all Super Retail’s brands since the first seven weeks of trading – on both like-for-like and total sales basis. Super Retail also manages Macpac, Supercheap Auto and BCF retailers. 

Macpac total sales slowed the most, to just 1.3 per cent for the first 18 weeks of the second half, compared to 13 per cent in the first seven weeks. 

“Management note Macpac has been impacted by greater exposure to NZ, with peak trading period expected in 4Q25,” the analysts wrote. 

“We reduce our total sales growth forecasts in 2H25e to 4.8 per cent year-on-year, down from the previous 5.2 per cent, with some improvement in Macpac sales expected in 4Q25e.”

Super Retail management also noted that competition was beginning to stabilise in the auto landscape, according to Macquarie analysts, who note that competitors have been discounting to clear stock. 

“Their strategy to respond to competitive pressure in SCA involves avoiding deep discounting and focusing on maintaining strong customer loyalty and preference.”