Ragtrader asked an industry power panel to predict the next year in Australian fashion retail.
Below are excerpts from a full, six page analysis in Ragtrader's January 2013 edition.
ragtrader.com.au will be back with more news in early January, 2013.
David White, Deloitte partner and national retail leader
It looks set to be another challenging year for fashion retailers in 2013, with low overall market growth prospects and little change in consumer confidence. In a recent Deloitte survey of retailers, 69 per cent of all respondents (64 per cent of fashion retailer respondents) said that they expect consumer confidence to stay the same in 2013.
Trevor Evans, National Retailers Association CEO
The RBA reduced interest rates to a record low of 3.0 per cent this month – clearly acting on predictions that Australia’s economy is returning to troubled waters in 2013. Economists are tipping further rate cuts in 2013, as the mining boom recedes from its peak and the focus shifts from the ‘fast lane’ of the economy back to the main lane. Five years after the GFC, in 2013, retail trade growth is unfortunately likely to remain subdued. NRA predicts total retail trade growth of 3.0 per cent for the year.
Suzannah Rowley, IBISWorld senior industry analyst
The woes for traditional bricks-and-mortar retailing look set to
continue over the next year with a marginal decline forecast for
clothing, footwear and accessories stores. This will be driven by
similar trends observed in Australia’s retail sector since the global
economic downturn such as the seismic shift towards value-conscious
spending. As the national savings ratio remains at elevated levels and
consumers continue to deleverage, shoppers are still wary of opening
their wallets and bargain hunting has become the new chic.
Erika Pacini, Australian Centre for Retail Studies research consultant
Although Australia is in a better position compared to other global economies, it will inevitably be affected by the global slowdown. Nonetheless, October’s monthly consumer confidence rating shows good news, with the index displaying strong growth to reach its highest point since February 2012. Australians are more confident about the next 12 months, with 33 per cent (up four per cent) now expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy and 40 per cent (up two per cent) expecting to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year.