Super Retail Group's sporting goods arm is finding resilience in school sport while its outdoor brand navigates a quieter season on the trails.
Rebel Sport is holding its ground thanks to school sport registrations and a customer who still needs boots for Saturday's game. Meanwhile, Macpac, the group's premium outdoor and adventure brand, is slipping back – and broker analysis suggests the slowdown is more noteworthy than the headline numbers imply.
The divergence sits inside a broader softening for the ASX-listed retailer (SUL), which also operates Supercheap Auto and BCF. Sales have slowed since the company's first-half result, with BCF bearing the sharpest pain – running at a negative 3.3 per cent like-for-like in the third quarter – and auto customers opting for essentials over upgrades. But it is the contrast between Rebel and Macpac that is interesting.
Rebel's relative resilience comes down to the nature of its demand. Sport participation – particularly organised, junior sport – has a semi-compulsory quality to it. Parents still buy the shin guards. Kids still need the runners. Jarden analysts, who cover the stock and retain an overweight rating despite cutting their price target to $14.90, lifted their Rebel EBIT estimate by around one per cent following the update, pointing to a better-than-expected sales run-rate and evidence of market share gains.
Total sales for the first 44 weeks of FY26 were up 4 per cent at Rebel, with second-half total sales growth of 2.8 per cent, which appears resilient given that the broader sports category recorded declining sales through March and April.
Macpac tells a different story. The brand, which SUL acquired in 2018 and positioned at the premium end of outdoor apparel and gear, carried strong momentum into the second half – total sales growth of 8.9 per cent across the first 44 weeks of FY26 – before hitting resistance. Second half total sales growth slowed to 2.9 per cent, with Super Retail attributing the deceleration directly to reduced outdoor activity over March and April.
Jarden cut its Macpac EBIT estimate by six per cent. The brand is now focused on managing inventory and ranging as it prepares for its peak winter trade season – the next real test.
The logic appears clear: when households are watching spending, a $200 down jacket or a weekend away in the Snowy Mountains starts to look deferrable. Unlike buying a mouthguard for Tuesday night's netball game, an alpine hike is optional.
Another big difference between Macpac and the rest of the group is market capitalisation. According to Jarden, SUL is a leading Australian category killer, with more than 30 per cent market share across its three major banners – Rebel, BCF and Supercheap Auto.
“However, recent earnings volatility, competitive pressure and management change have raised questions over consistency,” Jarden said. “While these concerns were valid, particularly in light macro uncertainties, we see this as an opportunity if the business can de-risk, execute capital management and gain a category killer multiple.”
Despite the softening sales across the four retailers, Jarden analysts were pleasantly surprised over Super Retail Group’s “modest” gross margin slip, which they claim is not as harsh as feared, indicating that promotions are being reined in.
But not all brokers were giddy. UBS noted that impacts on gross margin are varied. They think currency exchange rates are arguably a positive, with product mix varied – “but possibly a headwind” – and the competitive environment remains “rationally aggressive”, with competition in performance footwear (Rebel) having intensified.
“The greatest EBIT margin headwind is rising CODB/Sales due to operating de-leverage from softer sales, which we expect to remain a headwind in 2H26E and into FY27E.”
On top of this, overall inventory has lifted by $30 million, largely due to the Supercheap auto in order to get ahead of price increases – “a positive and unlikely to preclude further capital management at the result,” Jarden noted.
Looking forward, UBS told investors that SUL remains most exposed to rising fuel prices, while Rebel is more interest rate, rather than fuel impacted, which UBS thinks weighs on demand and, despite rising market share, the near-term sales outlook.
Further details on the medium-term sales outlook for SUL are expected to be provided at the upcoming Investor Day on June 11, 2026.