The shareholders of Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL) appear to hold a few concerns over the parent company of Rebel, Macpac, BCF and Supercheap Auto.
Analysts at Macquarie Bank, in a note to investors, pointed to various factors, including what they call “inconsistent” sales across the group’s four retail businesses and an interesting AGM vote to re-elect Judith Swales as the board chair.
In its note, the analysts said Super Retail’s share price response following the AGM update last week reflected weaker Supercheap Auto and BCF like-for-like sales, which overhang improvements in Rebel and Macpac.
The analysts remain cautious on BCF in particular, given Super Retail’s callout of a weaker Father's Day, and adverse NSW weather in the past seven weeks as a driver of underperformance.
BCF’s like-for-like sales growth grew by just 0.3 per cent in the first 16 weeks of FY26 compared to that in FY25. This is down from a 7.2 per cent LFL sales lift in the second half of FY25.
“Given the relatively warm, dry weather on Australia's East Coast over September/October (where BCF declined 2.3 per cent), we remain cautious on whether BCF may be encountering non-weather related consumer weakness or share losses,” Macquarie analysts noted.
As for Rebel, the analysts pointed out that despite its prior corresponding period being impacted by promotions to clear inventory, the sporting retailer is “encouragingly” improving into the peak Christmas trading period, “driven by stronger performance in footwear, which has more-than-offset weaker trading in football and basketball categories.”
Rebel reported a 3.2 per cent lift in like-for-like sales in the first 16 weeks of FY26, which is relatively consistent with a 3.5 per cent LFL sales lift in the second half of FY25.
“We look for management commentary around stock-loss at the 1H26E result to improve our confidence on the EBITDA margin profile for the division,” Macquarie analysts reported.
Meanwhile, Macpac seems to be showing consistent signs of improvement, with LFL sales accelerating from 1.9 per cent in the first seven weeks of FY26 to 13.9 per cent over the past nine weeks, according to Macquarie analysts.
“We think this considerable acceleration is driven by a more concerted focus on sales in FY26 (after opening ten new stores in FY25), slight improvements in the New Zealand consumer environment and potentially lumpiness in the business' trading – given its size.”
Macpac is Super Retail’s smallest subsidiary in terms of revenue, contributing just 5.7 per cent to total sales at Super Retail in FY25. In FY25, the outdoor apparel brand’s sales were $231.4 million.
Macquarie analysts’ forecasts for Macpac reflect strong growth for the brand.
As for Supercheap Auto, Super Retail’s largest subsidiary that now makes up around 37 per cent of total revenue, its like-for-like sales lifted 2.6 per cent in the first 16 weeks of FY26, which is up from a 0.7 per cent growth in the second half of FY25. Macquarie analysts project possible upside if Supercheap can win share from its reportedly weakened competitor, Autobarn.
Sales aside, the analysts also highlighted an interesting vote to retain Judith Swales as board chair, for which 25 per cent of shareholders voted against.
The analysts think that this reflects ongoing shareholder concerns around the level of oversight on misconduct by former CEO Anthony Heraghty. Heraghty was fired in mid-September, over a year into a court battle between him, Super Retail and two former employees. The court case included allegations that Heraghty was having an undisclosed affair with the former head of HR.
Other allegations include breaching the Corporations Act, including the whistleblower provisions, breaching Super Retail’s own whistleblower policy, and breaching the company’s contractual obligation to provide a safe workplace.
Macquarie analysts also pointed to the timing of his departure as a possible concern, which came eight days after the vesting of incentives for Heraghty.
In her speech at Super Retail’s AGM last week, Swales said the board’s review and investigation into allegations relating to Heraghty in 2023 was based on the information available at the time and was informed by external legal advice.
“When information that had not previously been disclosed to the Board came to our attention last month, we acted quickly and decisively. To be clear, the new information recently received from Mr Heraghty was not information available from company records, nor was it disclosed by him previously. Had the board had the information it now has, it would have responded very differently to these matters when they first arose.”
Swales then confirmed that the board has exercised its discretion to lapse Heraghty’s incentives, including both unvested and vested – but unexercised – performance rights, as well as the cash component of the FY25 short-term incentive. This totalled a market value of more than $7 million.
“The decisive steps we have taken as a board demonstrate that we act with clarity, purpose, and focus on both protecting shareholder value and maintaining the trust of all stakeholders. Our commitment is to a culture where high standards are clearly expected, monitored and upheld across all parts of the business.”
Macquarie analysts added that whilst an ongoing ASIC investigation and litigation remains an overhang for the stock, they are encouraged by the recent internal appointment of the BCF divisional head, Paul Bradshaw, to group CEO.
“This appointment reduces a risk of a major strategic reset, and the CEO's track-record at BCF is robust," the analysts shared.
Noting all this, Macquarie analysts have lowered their earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, predominantly due to inconsistent sales across the group, and have slightly lowered their share price target. The analysts now expect the 12-month share price target to be $17.30 for Super Retail Group.
This is up from its current share price of $16.75 (October 27, 10:26 AM), with the current share price down from its recent high of $18.84 in early September, but well up from a recent low of $12.31 in early April this year.