On the money

What do forecasters look for when sourcing the next big thing and what elements are unique to cities that are the leaders in setting trends? Samantha Docherty investigates.

A visionary when it came to design, Coco Chanel said "Fashion is not something that exists in dresses only. Fashion is in the sky, in the street; fashion has to do with ideas, the way we live, what is happening".

Fashion forecasters attribute a keen eye to their success.

Mark Watson, senior editor for WGSN Womenswear, argues enthusiasm, energy, the ability to see things with an open mind, recognising originality, a sense of style and an eye for the next big thing are all attributes great trend spotters have in common.

"You need to be an open minded person, curious for everything from fashion to food, from sport to culture, adds Nicolas Dubost, project manager for French forecasting agency Nelly Rodi.

"You must be able to analyse everything to translate it into something understandable and useful."

Agreeing an interest in "everything" helps in this field, the director of global forecast consultancy Scout, Tony Bannister, says as a trend spotter you have to keep your eyes and ears open.

"We look everywhere - the catwalk, pop culture, what influencers are wearing on the street. You start to see patterns emerge and you know before its hit that this will be the next big thing."

Adding that you can't just market something as a 'must have', Bannister says usually, influential people adopt it and others follow.

"With the current cult of celebrity, originality has flown out the window as everyone aspires to look like their favorite celebrity", says Watson.

"When a celebrity wears something usually chosen by a 'celebrity' stylist, that stylist is creating a 'look', therefore creating the desire for the next 'must have' item, i.e. the LA Boho look large glasses, oversize bags, maxi dresses."

But you also have to have a good product, with a good position, says Promostyl's China Consultant, Fériel Karoui.
"Well-targeted, well-priced, well-distributed and with [fitting] communication (media, street marketing, buzz, blogs) - a 'must have' has to catch the attention of a group that will carry the image of it, and then spread it. The M2E (mouth to ear) is also very important. Young people, as they are very connected (through their mobile phone, internet and communication websites) can launch good or wrong information very fast on a product."

Remarking that the more mass market fast fashion occurs, the more unique people will come to the surface, Watson says, "Fashion leaders will always rebel against the mainstream, providing continuous inspiration for people to follow."
So which countries house fashion leaders?

A favourite with all the trend forecasters Ragtrader spoke to, London is the city of the moment due to its cosmopolitan culture.

Fiona Jenvey, CEO of Mudpie Design, which publishes colour/trend/design reports aimed at the teen, youth and kids sectors, says at the moment London currently has a cultural brilliance.

"You only have to look at the art and music scene to see this. London is a truly cosmopolitan city with 40 per cent foreign born residents compared with NYC at 36 per cent. Unlike Manhattan, even prosperous areas of London are ethnically mixed. This ethnic diversity leads to a think tank of ideas and blending of culture which is ingrained into the capitals fabric of creativity."

Believing London has always been the catalyst for setting trends on the street, Watson says East London has been in the fashion spotlight for a while now and shows no sign of leaving.

Assenting London is booming due to its diversity and open mind-ness, Dubost says London (and Paris) keep maintaining their status of leading places because it's in their DNA and because they need it.

Along with London, Paris, New York and Tokyo are known throughout the industry as the key players when it comes to setting trends. But smaller, second cities are becoming very influential according to Bannister.

"Cities that have a strong, unique culture will always be trend leaders but big cities are expensive. You see more creative people leaving areas like New York's East Village and moving over to Brooklyn. Cities like Austin, Texas or Glasgow, Scotland have a huge population of students. You see more music emerging from these places, the best vintage shops...they care less about brand names (and often can't afford them) so they innovate."

Forecasting that Shanghai might be a huge competitor in the next generation, Karoui says Antwerp and Berlin are also very dynamic.

"Antwerp and Berlin give birth to very talented designers every year, although the mass media doesn't talk enough about them."

Closer to home, New Zealand fashion, according to Sharon Rae, founder of Fashion Forecast Services, is fantastic.
"For a country with such a small population, they're so creative and inventive."

Predicting that if the development of fashion schools in the south pacific increases, Karoui says it could increase the influence of Australian and New Zealand fashion around the world.

Adding that Maori tattoos are much appreciated in the world, Jean Sens, Promostyl's marketing project manager says a lot of designers and brands like ipod use [them].

"The All Blacks became a real label in the world and the 2007 Rugby World Cup will improve this trend. We see their products everywhere with their official sponsor Adidas."

Recently visiting Sao Paulo, Jenvey feels the Brazilian city needs to be watched as a future player for trends.

"[Their] street scene is quite interesting with a strong emphasis on luxury. Also the fashion week is becoming more important all the time. Another important city is Copenhagen. Scandinavia is right on trend at the moment as sustainability issues have pushed it forefront. The Scandinavians are really good at the natural reductive aesthetic that works well with the luxury eco look."

Believing that world events, politics and economics are often the starting point for fashion trends, Jenvey says issues such as the carbon obesity index, has led directly to customers starting to question the need for cheap imported fashion.
 "Consumers are starting to place more value on organic, sustainable and more locally produced products, or at least consciously produced by a small manufacturer. Furthermore, [they're] showing signs of rejecting the 'one size fits all' approach to fashion trends. Brands that come up with a more individual statement will have the most success over the next few years."

Ruth Marshall-Johnson, editor of Think Tank (WGSN's colour analysis and consumer attitudes section) agrees that fashion trends are dependent on the state of the world - to a degree.

"Fashion, rather than clothes, has always been about expressing your identity and lifestyle choices, so in this way the state of the world must affect it but it's not dependant. It's interesting to see that as the world continues to debate body image and larger icons get some press, fashion silhouettes play with volume. [Also] the effect of sustainability and eco issues will effect the production of fashion, forever in some cases."

With emerging looks from overseas for next winter reflecting a need for protection, Bannister says perhaps it's due to the threat of terrorism.

"We're seeing padded jackets, hoods, cocooning knits, armour-like details, metal rivets and gauntlet-style gloves. But sometimes you can read too much into fashion. While designers pick up on certain moods, there's also human nature - we want to have fun. Look at a city like Lebanon. It's constantly under attack, yet the women dress for glamour."

By Samantha Docherty