I see an amber light

I don't want to be a misery-guts, but we're coming up to a testing time in the fashion business. For some reason, elections, especially federal, dampen spending on apparel. And, more obviously, interest rate rises have the same effect.

When you put the two of them together the spectre of a double whammy appears, and if there is another rate rise just before the election the outlook is even darker.

I can't see that a win by either political force will do anything to change the general direction of the fashion industry. Both sides are committed to lower trade barriers, so the situation with imports will continue.

The question is what to do about a threatening sales slow-up. One is to keep a tight control on stock. Repeating a winner may not be a good idea. Better to leave some sales on the table than to see the table buried under stock.

Traditionally, when the public is spooked, it doesn't go into its shell and buy basics like logic might suggest. People are much more likely to spend on something novel and stimulating. So the policy should be to work extra hard on injection ranges with quirky and witty styling. At times like these, there is no safety in safety.

Another fact worth mentioning is that the small print on many major retailers' orders gives them to right to cancel for any reason or for no reason. Keep an eye on those li'l critters too, and have a contingency plan ready to move the stock they might reject.

The old saying that the first loss is the best loss holds true here. I've seen plenty of jobbing, but I've never seen a job price go up for an indignant seller waiting for a more reasonable buyer.

I'm beginning to sound like a cackling old crystal ball gazer in a cheap circus tent so you must remember that I could be wrong. Apparel might ride prosperously right through the election and interest rate rises. If it does, and you followed my advice, it will cost you some profit. But if I'm right, buy me some Krispy Kreme doughnuts next year with the money you saved.

Mark well what he do say

Mark Hilliers has just arrived at Max Frost & Co as general manager. Still in his 40s, Mark has managed to squeeze in 19 years service with Wenzel and Smouha plus a few with John Knight. That means he must have been dealing piecegoods behind the shelter sheds at school. No matter, the point is that Max Frost textiles had been a linings specialist, with only dabblings in fashion fabrics. But now Mark is putting his stamp on the company with a range of outerwear fabrics - including prints (registered, in case of knock-off temptations).

Mark believes there is a gentle resurgence in local garment manufacture, largely because China is becoming too big for Australia's boots. Minimums are going up, along with prices. Deliveries are lengthening, fuelled by huge growth in demand from the US and Europe. This is not a crisis, more of a steady trend. China is still well ahead of the pack for bulk orders at low prices, but the middle to smaller customer is being squeezed.

Alternatives are not easy. Vietnam, Indonesia and India all have pockets of excellence but are, on the whole, unreliable. The most difficult lesson for new clothing exporters to learn as that their domestic markets must not be connected, in any way, to their export business. Quality, manufacturing time and packaging are all on a different level.
Australian contract factories, when you can find them, tick all the boxes except price. And the further up the fashion scale we go, the more Australian prices can be tolerated.

Back to Mark Hilliers. His wisdom tells him that opportunities for fashion fabric wholesaling are on the rise and he's gearing up for it, with a head office and warehouse in Sydney, a fully staffed Melbourne office and agents in other states.
Although the company is still in the original Holt Street building it will probably march west in the near future.

Ah, how I remember the bygone days of the Max Frost Holt Street building; the late Max bounding up the stairs, tuning off lights and hot water services as he went to save electricity for the common good; the cooling lake on the roof which, apart from leaking into the building's car park, attracted a rich variety of water birds, tadpoles and insects.

Max had a nice unit on this lake. It was accessible across a series of stepping stones best negotiated in daylight.
Mark inherits the colourful ghosts who lived at a time when there was a bit of fun to be had. Let's hope he can resurrect some of them.