On form

@Di1:They are paid thousands, sometimes tens of thousands of dollars for their views on what will be in and what will be out in any particular season. But just how difficult is the job of trend forecasting? Tracey McEldowney reports.

Chris Stone admits it takes a lot of stomach to do what he does for a living.
"A lot of my forecasting comes from the gut. Having developed ranges for such a long time, you know when it feels right or it feels wrong."
It doesn't hurt that he loves what he does either.
Formerly a design director at homeware brand Sheridan and now part-time tutor, accomplished author and head of his own self-titled home fashion colour forecast company, Stone first got a taste for predicting trends while travelling around the world seeking out new colour and concepts relating to the Australian market.
Having worked in the textile industry in Milan for the best part of 12 years, he describes colour forecasting as "a way of organising a homeware business the same way as you would a fashion business" - providing information, for example, to a shoe company that needs to know what colour dresses are coming up so it can manufacture matching shoes.
Stone, whose methodology involves starting with a big selection and then whittling down the palettes to end up with six ranges of eight colours,
says solid trend information not only increases sales but can also broaden a company's view.
"Colour and design is constantly on the move. Trend information uses the zeitgeist of newness and combines it with a spark of inventiveness so that product develops and sells to the consumer. Sometimes it is selling the dream. One company will see something totally different in a set of images, from another. It is creating an inspirational tool."
For Tony Bannister, the head of trend consultancy Scout, the key to success in this industry is less about dreaming and more about solid ground work.
"My main driving force is to keep looking ahead of the current climate and market. [It's about] assessing what is happening now and to predict where the trends will go for my client's market and demographic. Too many brands and companies get stuck in a rut and don't move on plus others aren't original and stick to the same formulae."
The key, he says, is to inspire your clients to produce the best possible ranges and product they can.
Bannister - who worked for a UK-based trend service before coming to Australia and taking up creative director roles at womenswear brands Witchery and Sportscraft - says it's important for Australian-based trend forecasters to be aware of what's happening at an international level and not just a local one.
To this end, he travels to trade fairs to see what is going on at a brand and grass roots level, edits catwalk collections with an eye to what will be "I also listen to my instinct, I have learned to have an uncanny feel for what will happen in seasons to come and I've learned to finesse that skill as a key factor in my business."
But do they ever get it wrong?
Stone says rarely, Bannister argues occasionally and Dominic Beirne - from non- profit organisation Fashion Group International - says well, yes, sometimes they do because "no person or organisation is ever always right".
Stone says the more often a trend forecaster predicts trends, the more he or she sees and therefore the more accurate they become.
"Trend prediction is not only seeing the future but understanding the past. Understanding also what materials look good in what colours. Cultures too take on different meanings when we speak colour. I [once] wondered why a delicately drawn floral design hadn't sold in Japan - the size was perfect, the technique soft, the style elegant. 'Japanese funeral colours' responded my agent."
But whether deadly accurate, partially accurate or never accurate, in the end all experienced trend forecasters can do is to pass on the information requested, Beirne says.
"Ultimately it is what a business does with that information. If they act on it then it has been useful but if they ignore it then it [becomes] a waste of resources."

* Chris Stone, Tony Bannister and Dominic Beirne - together with Jo-Ann Jenkins of consultancy Jenkins UK - will appear at the Ragtrader International Industry Trend Seminars taking place at the Melbourne edition of bi-annual trade fair Fashion Exposed from September 3 to 5.